INDIA - How Critical Is Russian Oil?

First came the tariffs in August—50% duties on Indian goods, dressed up as punishment for buying Russian oil.

Caught between an old ally in Moscow and mounting pressure from Washington, India’s energy policy has become a delicate balancing act. But just how critical is Russian oil to the Indian economy?

[In 2024], India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, bought $52.7bn of Russian crude—37% of its oil bill—followed by Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Nigeria, and the US.

Despite some popular perception that India relies solely on Russian oil, it also imports significant volumes from the US. In 2024, India bought $7.7bn of American petroleum products—including $4.8bn of crude—but still ran a $3.2bn petroleum trade deficit with Washington, according to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank.

“If India were to halt Russian purchases, global oil prices could rise, wiping out those savings and adding even more to import costs—not just for India, but worldwide…,” says Partha Mukhopadhyay of the Center for Policy Research.

“Most Indian refineries are calibrated for heavier crude grades similar to Russia’s Urals blend. Replacing those with light US shale would require costly reconfiguration and could cut yields of diesel and jet fuel,” says Ajay Srivastava, former Indian trade official.

For Delhi, the trade-off is stark: continue with discounted Russian oil and risk US retaliation, or shift to costlier Middle Eastern and American grades and face higher domestic fuel prices, says Mr. Srivastava.

-www.bbc.com, 16 October 2025

Commentary: India experts estimate it is set to be the world’s largest economy after China in the not-too-distant future. But the country is heavily dependent on energy imports, needing over 80% of crude oil and nearly 50% of its natural gas needs.

How quickly things change is indicated by the availability of oil.

The 1970s energy crisis was primarily due to substantial petroleum shortages in the US, Canada, Western Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. It climaxed in 1973 during the Arab/Israeli Yom Kippur War, when an oil embargo was implemented by the Arab nations. By April 2008, it peaked at over $113 per barrel. Then in September 2020, it plunged to $40.05. As of 28 January 2026, crude oil trades at $63.21 per barrel.

Even with various statistical indicators, it seems all but impossible to determine the fluctuation of oil costs.

India needs oil, and Russia is the most reliable low-cost supplier. That, quite naturally, upsets the Western camp, particularly due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In summary, one thing becomes crystal clear: The world is merging into one gigantic global business, each depending on the other to a certain extent. What seems obvious is that the East will continue to rise in importance to reach balance with the West.

Yet all are destined to experience what 2 Timothy 3:1-4 says: “This know also, that in the last days perilous times shall come. For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, Without natural affection, trucebreakers, false accusers, incontinent, fierce, despisers of those that are good, Traitors, heady, highminded, lovers of pleasures more than lovers of God.” Eighteen characteristics are enumerated, which interestingly are grouped in three sets of six.