WORLD - Crime Rate Decreasing?

In the 1990s John DiIulio, a conservative American academic, argued that a new breed of “superpredators,” “kids that have absolutely no respect for human life and no sense of the future,” would terrorize Americans almost indefinitely. He was not alone. Experts were convinced that crime would keep rising. Law-abiding citizens would retreat to gated communities, patrolled by security guards. Politicians and police chiefs could do little except bluster and try to fiddle the statistics.

Mr. DiIulio later recanted and it is clear that the pessimists were wrong. Even as he wrote, America’s crime wave was breaking. Its cities have become vastly safer, and the rest of the developed world has followed. From Japan to Estonia, property and people are now safer than at almost any time since the 1970s. Confounding expectations, the recession has not interrupted the downward trend. […] New data show that the homicide rate for young Americans is at a 30‐year low.

Some crimes have all but died out. [In 2012] there were just 69 armed robberies of banks, building societies and post offices in England and Wales, compared with 500 a year in the 1990s. In 1990 some 147,000 cars were stolen in New York. [In 2012] fewer than 10,000 were. In the Netherlands and Switzerland street dealers and hustlers have been driven out of city centers; addicts there are now elderly men, often alcoholics, living in state hostels. In countries such as Lithuania and Poland the gangsters who trafficked people and drugs in the 1990s have moved into less violent activities such as fraud.

The receding tide

Cherished social theories have been discarded. Conservatives who insisted that the decline of the traditional nuclear family and growing ethnic diversity would unleash an unstoppable crime wave have been proved wrong. Young people are increasingly likely to have been brought up by one parent and to have played a lot of computer games. Yet they are far better behaved than previous generations. Left-wingers who argued that crime could never be curbed unless inequality was reduced look just as silly.

-www.economist.com

Commentary: The article continues, “There is no single cause of the decline; rather, several have coincided.” The above-quoted excerpt from The Economist dates back to 20 July 2013.

What has happened in the meantime?

When it comes to low crime rates, BBC lists the top ten countries for 2025: 1) Iceland; 2) Ireland; 3) New Zealand; 4) Austria; 5) Switzerland; 6) Singapore; 7) Portugal; 8) Denmark; 9) Slovenia; and 10) Finland. Interestingly, Europe is leading the way, followed by East Asian nations. Yet global statistics also clearly prove that crime is going down.

According to World Population Review, crime rates for 2026 lists Venezuela on top with an 80.7 index. The five lowest are: Oman, Taiwan, Qatar, UAE, and Andora, ranging from 18.3 to 15.3 in the index (USA is 49.2).

In most analyses, increased prosperity is the number one reason for lower crime rates. Technology (including AI) and effective law enforcement are contributing to the crime rate decrease.

Now we come to the point: What does it mean Biblically? First of all, luxury galore. Never before in history could the average person so easily purchase food, clothing, housing, healthcare, and general merchandise as in our days. One of the most telling facts is life expectancy. Based on WHO data, global average life expectancy for 2025 was 73.5 years. OurWorldinData.org shows that 200 years ago, life expectancy was in the 30-40 year range.

It is unfortunate that many Bible-grounded ministries and authors over-emphasize the catastrophes that are coming upon planet earth, without mentioning the extremely successful and prosperous days before the downfall.

Think about Noah’s time; Jesus stated, “they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark” (Matthew 24:38b). That looks like a very successful society.

What about Sodom and Gomorrah? Ezekiel 16:49 states: “Behold, this was the iniquity of thy sister Sodom, pride, fulness of bread, and abundance of idleness was in her and in her daughters, neither did she strengthen the hand of the poor and needy.”

And when it comes to the Church, we read of Laodicea: “I am rich, and increased with goods, and have need of nothing” (Revelation 3:17b). That describes a time of great prosperity, peace, and abundant luxury.