JAPAN - Population Decline Fears

Japan’s prime minister Abe Shinzo called an election last November, with the campaign slogan Kono michi shika nai (There is no other way), modelled on Margaret Thatcher’s “There is no alternative.”

In April, experts were invited to a meeting at his official residence, and produced a plan for slowing population decline. If the birth rate can be stabilized at 2.07 by 2030 (currently 1.39, compared to 2.1 in France) and if Japan admits 200,000 guest workers a year, the population will stay around 110 million, instead of falling from 127 million in 2010 to 87 million in 2060.

Abe defended the concept in a television speech: “It’s not an immigration policy. We’d like them to work and earn money for a limited period of time, and then go home.”

This will be difficult, as it goes against the anti-immigration stance that Japan has maintained since the second world war. Though there have been changes since 1985, the number of foreigners entering Japan and number of naturalizations have remained low compared with other major OECD economies. Foreigners were 1.6% of the population in Japan in 2008 (latest figures available), compared with 5.8% in France, 6.7% in the US and 8.6% in Germany.

Taro Aso, then education minister, said in 2005: “Japan is one nation, one civilization, one language, one culture, one race.” His words echoed an ultranationalist and culturalist current that originated before the second world war — its influence will have to fall significantly before Japan lets in many immigrants.

-mondediplo.com, February 2025

Commentary: Rich, industrialized, developed nations seem to face an insurmountable obstacle—the production of people. That is contrary to the much-feared theory of global overpopulation some decades ago.

One nation after another continues to experience population decline. Pro-natalist policies have failed to reverse the trend. Quite obviously, the answer is migration.

A recent study published in Germany insists that the country needs 1 million new immigrants each year to offset the population decline.

Even China, previously the most populous country in the world, has been surpassed by India and is now experiencing significant population decline.

This trend is also particularly notable in eastern European countries.

What is quite obvious is that machines, luxury, and an “abundance of … delicacies” (Rev 18:3b) are contributing factors to population decline.

Here we must quote Scripture: “Lo, children are an heritage of the Lord: and the fruit of the womb is his reward” (Psalm 127:3). Jacob, the father of Israel, was asked by Esau his brother when he returned to the Promised Land: “And [Esau] lifted up his eyes, and saw the women and the children; and said, Who are those with thee? And [Jacob] said, The children which God hath graciously given thy servant” (Genesis 33:5). Proverbs 17:6 adds: “Children’s children are the crown of old men; and the glory of children are their fathers.”